Pinpoint lightning predictions- new satellite revolutionizing weather forecasting

Final launch preparations were underway Monday at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station ahead of the launch of NOAA's next-generation weather satellite, GOES-T.

Rightfully so, there’s much focus on the high-end disasters these new satellites can better see and study, but researchers are also working on creating new programs and algorithms to help forecast more mundane weather events like summertime pop-up thunderstorms and areas of dense fog, made possible by new weather satellites like GOES-T.

One project being worked on at the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies can predict where storms may form well ahead of time by looking at the different cloud types the satellite sees, and comparing it to past events when the satellite’s lightning detection instrument known as the Global Lightning Mapper, or GLM, saw lightning.

“We’re using artificial intelligence, or AI, to predict where the NOAA GOES-R GLM is most likely to observe lightning up to 60 minutes in the future," said John Cintineo, research meteorologist at the University of Wisconsin. "Even before rain starts or storms shop up on radar.”

The satellite can predict lightning on approximately a county-sized level. The use cases for this are far reaching that can protect the lives of people are vulnerable to lightning.

“This tool has the potential to improve guidance for aviation and marine activities," Cintineo said. "As well as decision support for the National Weather Service for outdoor activities like sporting events and festivals, concerts and things like that.”

While lightning frequently causes disruptions to airlines specially on a regional level, there’s another, less thought about phenomenon that can significantly impact air travel across the nation.

“If you have delays in San Francisco due to fog, that may disrupt flight schedules in the Midwest," said Michael Pavolonic, Physical Scientist with NOAA/NESDIS. "It’s not just a local problem but it has national implications. The worst thing that can happen is a diversion. You’re better off having some ground stops and flight delays at airports than you are not being able to land at the airport that you’re supposed to land at.”

The higher resolution imagery, and more data provided by a satellite like GOES-T, will allow not only better monitoring of fog, but better predictions, thus limiting flight diversions.

“If they have an hour or two of notice that (fog is) going to reduce visibility, they can make adjustments to runway configurations, flight schedules, and they minimize disruptions," Pavolonic said. "But if you’re just reacting to it as it gets there, you have fewer options in how to mitigate that.”

With the launch of GOES-T, forecasts will get even better, better clarity especially in the western US. That launch set for Tuesday, March 1, at 3:38 p.m. from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.